The Numbers Don't Lie Huntsville Market 2025 Year-End Predictions

 

This episode of the Boomtown podcast, hosted by Cameron Walker and Megan Hines, offers a quick market update on the explosive growth in Huntsville, Alabama, focusing on the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 and expectations for the new year. While initial economic reports showed a steady market with a 2% to 3% change in sales price and an increase in days on the market, the October numbers "blew things out of the water". September was also the strongest part of Q3. Surprisingly, the market jumped in October despite the government shutdown, which meant many local residents were not receiving paychecks. The hosts discuss that investors were likely the first movers in the market, especially after the Space Force announcement, as rates have been up and single-family and apartment rents have slightly declined. The continued resilience of the market is attributed to factors like the thousands of people expected to move to the area due to Space Force, the FBI, and other contract wins, as well as Huntsville's growing service economy. Huntsville is a high-growth area in Alabama, offering a low cost of living, higher-than-average pay, and a large number of open positions (14,000 open jobs on Indeed as of the video's recording). The hosts also offer advice for buyers looking to purchase a home before the end of the year, suggesting they may need to be more aggressive with well-priced, well-shown homes but may have more leverage with homes that have been on the market for 30–60 days.

 

Boomtown Podcast Show Notes

 

  • Huntsville Market Update Q3 2025: The first part of Q3 was steady, showing a 2% to 3% change in sales price, lengthening days on market, and building inventory.
  • October Market Surge: October numbers "blew things out of the water," even with the backdrop of a government shutdown.
  • Investor Influence: Investors were likely "first movers" in the market following the Space Force announcement. They had been waiting on the sideline until either prices went down or rents went up.
  • Space Force and Other Growth: The market surge is attributed to expectations of thousands of people moving to the area for Space Force, the FBI, and other contract wins, including those related to the Golden Dome.
  • Resilience of the Huntsville Market: Despite the government shutdown suppressing the market, it remains "hotter than it was last year at this time".
  • Interest Rates and Refinancing: Recent cuts to interest rates, although not significantly affecting mortgage rates yet, are creating hope and an expectation that buyers can refinance in the future. Some new builders are so confident that they are offering to pay for a refinance for buyers in a couple of years.
  • Huntsville's Economy: Huntsville has an affluent and highly educated population that supports a growing service-based economy (restaurants, services).
  • Job Market: There are 14,000 open jobs on Indeed in Huntsville, which is more than during the peak of the pandemic. This indicates that businesses are confident enough to expand.
  • Advice for Buyers:
    • Buyers seeking a home by the end of 2025 will need to move faster than in previous falls and winters.
    • Be more aggressive with well-priced, well-shown homes that are early in their days on the market.
    • Buyers can have more leverage with homes that have been on the market for 30–60 days, allowing for negotiations on price or concessions.
    • If a seller is selling during the normally slow time of the year, they likely have a reason. Being flexible on time can often save money.

 

Market Forecast: The market is expected to finish the year busier than most, and the upward trajectory is expected to continue.

 

Boomtown Podcast Transcript

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Welcome back to the Boomtown podcast where we tell you about all the explosive growth going on and off the Arsenal here in Huntsville, Alabama. I'm Cameron Walker, broker and owner of Cameron Walker Realty and today with me as always my co-host Megan Hines.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Hello everyone.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): And today we're going to talk to you about, just give you a quick market update. We're going to tell you what we've seen the last quarter going through Q3 of 2025. We're going to talk about what you can expect going forward into the new year. So Megan, let's dive in.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Absolutely. So, we were just talking about this a few minutes ago and there were some surprising things about these numbers, especially what's been happening extremely recently, like during the shutdown the last few weeks.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, absolutely. So, our local realtor association in conjunction with UAH here in Huntsville, they do these economic reports every quarter. And so when that one came out, it looked like things were just kind of steady as they had been, adding, you know, 2 to 3% change in sales price up and down over the course of the quarter. Lengthening of days on market. More inventory building up, kind of status quo, what we've been seeing for the last year or two. And then boom, the October numbers come out and really just blew things out of the water. And even September was really strong. So even though that was part of Q, you know, Q3, it was the strongest part of Q3. And what was shocking is those numbers in October really jumped despite there being the government shutdown and literally half of our population not getting a check for a month and a half. My wife still hasn't gotten paid.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah, and that's really interesting. Like we can look at the numbers and then we can just know from what we've been experiencing in terms of our own personal business. And I know that the end of August felt like things were slowing down. It really did have this, and that that plays out in the numbers that we're seeing as well. And then they kicked back up again, right?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): And that actually coincided with the Space Force announcement.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): And just like in the video that you put out, it seems to be at this point that most of that is is investors, right? At the, I mean, it's hard to really drill it down. We can't, we have these numbers, but we can't do a survey of everyone who's bought a house. But we are getting more calls from investors and and it also stands to reason that that would be the case because you know, our the Arsenal is huge here. A lot of the people who live here work on the Arsenal and those people were not getting a paycheck during this time. So who does that leave to be fueling this market?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, for sure. So, it's a great question and you know, I put out a video the day that uh it was announced that Space Force would be coming to Alabama. And in that video, I mentioned I was like, the first movers are going to be investors because they've been on the sideline while rates have been up anyway. We've seen an adjustment in rents here where we overbuilt apartments for a little while. So, apartments are giving away free month, two months rent. Even single family rents have gone down a little bit. So, the investors said, "Hey, we're going to sit on the sideline till either the prices go down or the rents go up". Well, now they're out in front of it because then they know there's going to be thousands of people moving here because it's not just Space Force. We have the FBI and other and many contracts have been won recently, particularly in relationship to the Golden Dome. So, and that's just the stuff that makes the news. It doesn't talk about the 10 to 50 that we get here and there every month, too. So, with all that said, I think the investors made the first move. And then I know from experience, I mean, I'm closing this week with somebody from Space Command. We already have those Space Command jobs coming here. This is a PCS full-on government transfer. So these people are already coming even though it may be 3 years down the road before the building's ready for them. We have the capacity to take them on now. So it's those folks that had the ability to shift when they arrived that wanted to get here ahead of the the bigger onslaught and rush of people. So I think we saw an investor's move. I think we saw the um people who had the luxury of changing their timeline whether it was Space Force related or not. They wanted to get here ahead of the bulk of Space Force. And I think we've seen some local movers who were not either government employees or maybe they were contractors that were already fully funded. So they were getting paid and there were some dips in the rates over that period of time. And if you go and look at the national numbers at the uh contracts, the construction starts and most importantly the mortgage applications, you will see every time there was a tenth to quarter decrease in rates, you saw a spike. and that was people buying homes because they knew that that may not last. So I think it's a variety of factors that drove it. What was really important to me was to see that in, you know, against the backdrop of the government shutdown and knowing how many of our local people were not able to move up or downsize or what have you because they weren't getting a paycheck.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And we know that that government shutdown suppressed the market, right? But even with that suppression, this market is hotter than it was last year at this time.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, and that's interesting. Now last year at this time we did had have the election which you know that had people sort of pausing and assessing and afraid to make a move. But still, I mean, the government shutdown has should have people pausing, assessing and afraid to make a move as well and our market just seems to steam right through that.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Absolutely. I mean upward trajectory both in September and October. And to your point, we did see a suppressed October last year going into the election. We saw a small pop right afterwards, but then rates went up and that kind of put the kibosh on that. So now what we're seeing is a sustained march upward and we're seeing at the same time that the Fed keeps indicating that they're going to ease their policies that they've been using to kind of tighten the market. They're starting to play a little looser and indicating that they will do even more so in the future. Not that interest rates are 100% tied to what the Fed does, but down you go far enough downstream they are. And so it's just what's the timeline on that and what's the confidence level for the banks and the other investors out there that really do control the mortgage interest rate market.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): So with your buyers that you've worked with in the last uh quarter, have they been able to find what they're looking for? How's availability looking for people?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, um it's been interesting. So it's been a mixed bag and it goes back to how homes are priced and how they're marketed. So, a home that shows well, is priced aggressively is going to have multiple offers. And we lost a couple of those in the last couple months. I had an investor that came out from California. Wanted to get into the Huntsville market, probably buy more properties. We saw a house on Sunday. We spent four hours there. We left and by before we got out of the neighborhood, I got a call from the sales rep. It was under contract to somebody else. Good news was there was another one next door literally that they got. Um, so that worked out. But, I mean, there, I mean, we weren't even out of the neighborhood yet. We'd lost it. Um, but I also have a house I got under contract last night and we went in $10,000 under asking and we got it. So, it is a little bit of a mixed bag. What's interesting is I had two clients that had to cancel October trips because of the government shutdown. They were government, one of whom is now coming tomorrow. But, um, so even I personally experienced not having as many clients and yet we saw that market growth.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And I was actually talking to an agent in another market yesterday on the phone and she was telling me that in their market, which is in Mississippi, it's not here, um the government shutdown had had them, you know, just hanging out. Nothing was happening at all. So, this really does show the resilience of this particular market. And um and I think what we're seeing is like we have people moving here. It's becoming a more urban situation in Huntsville. We talk about that a lot. And so these jobs are creating this multiplier effect where we have all kinds of other people who are doing things and making money in this area and it's just it's building upon itself.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): For sure. And I call it the term I use, and I don't know if I coined it or not, is trailing spouse. And I consider myself one. We moved here for my wife's job, right? Then I had to find a gig. So, but that's not unique to anyone. There are people here who want to move here, who have a job offer, who don't because their spouse doesn't get one. But in most cases, I was looking this morning, there's 14,000 open jobs on Indeed in Huntsville. That's more than we had during the peak of the pandemic when everybody across the country was moving. So, there are open positions and they're not all just in government jobs or contracting jobs. To your point, like we do have an affluent base of people here. They're highly educated. They make good money. They have steady paychecks last month notwithstanding. And they use services. So they get haircuts, they buy groceries, they buy new cars, they wash their car, right? And as more and more people move here and we and our average income goes higher and higher, they are able to afford more and more of these services. And that is bringing in these restaurants and other service businesses that don't make the headlines because you don't hire 500 people to open a restaurant. You hire 20. And so what the the headline is that this restaurant with this menu is opening, you got to remember that's another 20 jobs in Huntsville, too. Yeah. And 14,000 open. That doesn't mean that we have a crisis where we don't have people to work. That means that these businesses feel confident enough in what they're doing to expand.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Absolutely. Um and you can tell it's not right after the pandemic. We actually saw this. I was in I was in the Atlanta airport and there were things closed because they didn't have employees to work in them. And we saw that all over the country where they'd be like, "Sorry, closed for lunch. We don't have anyone to work". That's not the situation. And I don't want people to get the wrong idea about all those open jobs. The situation is that people are like, "Let's expand. Let's hire more people. We feel confident enough enough in what we're doing that we're going to get bigger".

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah. We're a high growth area inside a larger high growth area. Alabama's one of the most moved to states in the US and we're in the area that's the most moved to within Alabama. Um, we have a low cost of living. We have a higher than average pay. We have a lot of open positions and day by day, Huntsville and the surrounding areas get more cool opportunities for better lifestyle and that's just a magic mix, right? So, it's no surprise people are wanting to move here. So, and we're seeing it day in and day out. You and I have jobs because of it and it's starting to play out more and more in the numbers. I do think interest rates really put the kibosh on things for about two years. Not that our market died, but it certainly leveled out and there was more downward trajectory on prices and on days on market, things like that. But we've seen it level out and we're I think we're going to see it continue to rise.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And I think that two things are happening with interest rates. One, people have there've been a few cuts. They haven't really affected mortgage rates significantly yet, but people feel hope in that regard. And and if we're getting close to lower interest rates, people are aware that if they were to get a mortgage, they could at some point refinance. And if, you know, we have uh new builders who are offer, who are, I had a new builder say, we're offering a buy down for the next couple of years because we know interest rates are going down. So if someone buys this house, we're going to pay for a refinance so that they will end up at a lower interest rates. That's how confident people are. Right now, that might be a little bit of a sales technique, but still that expectation is within the market and it's affecting how people are behaving.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): For sure. And like I have clients that are moving here from California and um kind of this speaks a lot to different parts of the market. We went under contract on a new construction home. They wanted to go contingent. The builder kind of limped into the contingency. They were like kind of verbally accepting it and kind of strung us along. Ultimately, they did not want to tell their corporate office they took a contingent offer. So, they were pressing us very hard to get them a contract so they could kind of jump over that and make it just contingent upon that home selling that they're selling in California. Now, my clients are buying cash here with the delta between what they sell and what the house is worth here. So, like they're not and they're not pressed by the incentives or by the interest rate. They were far more about the price of the home, the location, right? Well, this was a really aggressively priced home, which gave that builder some leverage to press us because they knew they could find another buyer for it, especially in a market where we're seeing a big uptick in a specific micro market where they were seeing that as well. Fortunately, it all worked out for us because my clients market in the area in California they're in is a little hotter than some other parts of the country. But that's something with you and I kind of working with people that are relocating here from so many different areas. We have to take that into account and how we make offers and presentations here is what's the strength of where you're leaving. You know, has your house already been on the market? Is it going on the market? Or do you have a good agent? You know, I had one of the worst things I can see is I have a client here. I'm trying to take care of them. We've got to come up with a plan and they've got some screw ball agent on the other side that has no marketing plan, doesn't know how they're going to do this, throwing spit at the wall to figure out what the price is. Like, you know, darts on a price board to say, "Oh, your house is worth this". You really need to work with a great agent on the other side. If you can't find one, let me know. We'll find one for you. I know you just did this for somebody, but you know, in this kind of ball of what my clients are dealing with, thankfully, they had a great agent, but it's, you know, so many moving pieces and it's impacted by their end and our end and then what type of financing they're doing and the confidence of the builder, the confidence of us. So, there's a lot of moving pieces going on in these deals.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): So given the current market conditions, let's say somebody wants to buy a home between now the and the end of the year, what do you think they're looking at?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): I think if somebody's trying to buy a house by the end of 2025 here in Huntsville, they're going to have to move a little faster than they did in previous falls and winters, right? Um there's still a lot of inventory out there, so they don't have to rush a decision. But if it's a well-priced, well shown home and it's early in its days on market, I would definitely be more aggressive towards it. If it's a home that's been on the market 30, 60 days, I do think you have a little bit more time to make a decision and we have more room for play and what we ask for. Be it a lower price or other concessions towards closing or more repair items.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And and I think it really depends on the home and where it is. You have to look at these very specifically. Um and so I'm not saying just don't overpay. That's my point is don't overpay because we're telling you to be a little bit aggressive. This is specific to neighborhood really. Um, if everything in the neighborhood, if there's multiple homes in that neighborhood and they've all been sitting, you still have plenty of leverage really. And if your agent communicates very well, that also gives you an advantage because you can stay in the loop. You can uh basically you you'll negotiate better if your agent's a better communicator rather than having to get that offer in first in order to to to win it.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Make sense?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Absolutely. There's the difference between the highest offer and the best offer can be a huge delta sometimes. Yeah. Uh case in point, we got a great deal from my client that I got under contract last night, but one of the things we gave up was 15 days of closing. So, we went from a 30-day closing to a 45 because it turns out the sellers, since we've gotten this late in the year, they wanted to have their last Christmas in their current house. Yeah. My client had plenty of time. He didn't have to be in by any specific date. So, that was a great concession for us. We gave up something that had zero value to get $10,000 worth of value for us.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah, that's an excellent point. Because this is normally the slowest time of the year that we're coming into. So, if the seller is selling at this time, it's usually because they have a reason. And if you can drill down and find out what that reason is, you can negotiate on that point. And it might be some extra time. It might usually it's either time or money usually. And so if you can find a way to be very flexible in terms of time, it can often save you some money.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, absolutely. And you know, there's the old adage, time is money, right? And in real estate, that really is true. So I'll tell you, the last three houses I got under contract on the resale market, all three of the sellers did not have anywhere to go yet. They needed to sell this house first, and we were able to use that time negotiation on each one. So, what that meant was they had more time to either find the next house or to go into short-term living. In one case, they weren't um they weren't able to find anything within the time frame we gave them. So, they w up moving in with their family, but they were in a position where they needed to sell to your point before they could make that next leap for them. Now, they're not in a rush to do it. They weren't like in a problem state, you know, they weren't a whatever the distressed sellers, I think the term they like to use, but they were far more willing to negotiate, take a better offer from us because it helped them in their timing.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And a lot of the time the issue is that they have something else under contract that they're looking to buy, which your agent should never ever let anyone know this because you've lost all leverage. Um, so don't tell anyone that, but if we're your agents, we're going to try and find out. And they do sometimes tell us, you know, it's it's it's mind-boggling because it how how can you have any power in that negotiation if you know that these people are coming up against a brick wall and they have to move, right?

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, absolutely. Like I'll give you a prime example, too. Like recently went to a transaction where the agent on the other side had over 600 listings they've sold in the last 20 years. They were as tight lipped as they could be. They were loose lips, sink ships. They did not give away anything extra no matter what I asked for. I've had other recent newer agents that I mean just gave away the farm. You know, I just kept taking off numbers of what our offer was going to be the longer they talked to me.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): And I'm pretty sure that agents don't watch to this point in our podcast because they're bored so that we that way we can say all this.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Absolutely. You know, C minus industry. It is what it is. Well, I mean, I think, you know, kind of quick recap, right? Like Q3 was flat. I would say, you know, little bobbles up and down with September kind of being the surprise in that. Um October was a big surprise and how much growth we saw, but yeah, especially in the in light of the government shutdown. Um November's been very strong for us. While we're a very small part of the industry, I am usually formulating plans for next year right now. And right now I'm scheduling inspections, going to walkthroughs, scheduling closings, you know. But the numbers play out that that's not just us. It's been busy. And that that gives us a lot to think about in the future really about where this is going.

 

Speaker 2 (Megan Hines): Yeah. And I think if we're talking just to the end of the year, I think we're going to be busy. I think we're going to finish this year busier than we do most. Yeah. So, and I I think that for an individual who's thinking about buying, that means that they're going into a market that is not as powerfully in their favor as they might expect this time of year. And for an individual who is like, I really need to sell um and who has been holding off because of the season, it might be okay to move.

 

Speaker 1 (Cameron Walker): Yeah, definitely seeing more showings on my listings than I was a couple months ago. Yeah. Right. All right. Thanks for watching, guys. Catch you on the next one. Thanks for watching or listening. You can always catch us on audio on uh wherever you get your podcast, be Spotify, Apple, or you can watch our video on YouTube. Really appreciate you guys being here. Ask that you subscribe so we can keep you informed of everything going on here in Huntsville.